NL Cy Young Odds: The Phillies Are Dominating the Field
Which National League pitchers are putting their names into consideration for Cy Young honors in 2024? The National League Cy Young award race is largely open this year, with several top-performing pitchers playing well. Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is leading the pack with a 2.16 ERA and an 8-3 record, while playing for the winningest team in the National League. His 95 strikeouts lead the pack by a fair margin, which could be one factor in his Cy Young odds over his teammates. Tyler Glasnow, who leads the league in strikeouts (116) and K/9 (12.1) and is currently pacing for his heaviest career workload with 86 innings already under his belt, has a 6-5 record through 14 starts. However, his 3.24 ERA is only the ninth-best among our pitchers with the 10 shortest odds to win the Cy Young.
Diterbitkan : 2 minggu yang lalu oleh Aidan McGrath di dalam Sports
The National League Cy Young award race is looking a heck of a lot different this year than it did a year ago. Whereas last year's competition arguably boiled down to "which pitcher can last the full year" and was eventually won by Blake Snell -- who led the league in walks -- this year's race is chock full of pitchers playing at the top of their games.
With so many aces playing at such a high level, the Cy Young field is pretty much wide open. But even in a year with some top-notch mound-work, a frontrunner is emerging. So which players have the best odds to claim a Cy Young award this year? Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB Awards Betting Odds market and find out.
Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is doing Zack Wheeler things again in 10th season in the pros. The veteran -- who has earned votes for previous Cy Young awards but has never won -- is working deep into games and keeping opposing teams off the scoreboards while doing it.
Wheeler has pitched to a fantastic 2.16 ERA on the season, racking up an 8-3 record while playing for the winningest team in the National League. Among the Phillies' enviable rotation, his 95 strikeouts lead the pack by a fair margin -- which could be one factor in why he has such a distinct lead in his Cy Young odds over his teammates.
Wheeler is giving up an average of just 5.6 hits per game, the lowest rate among qualified National League pitchers. He's walking batters a bit more than usual -- his current 7.9% walk rate is his highest since 2017 -- but has kept his WHIP at a tidy 0.96 mark through his league-highest 87.2 innings pitched.
Wheeler has a clean resume here and is on pace to put another Cy Young-worthy season. But can he do enough to stand out from the pack by the season's end? Or will this end up being another runner-up year for the 34-year-old ace?
If Tyler Glasnow can just stay healthy for a full year, it'll be hard to keep his name out of the Cy Young award conversation. He's leading the league in strikeouts (116) and K/9 (12.1) and is currently pacing for his heaviest career workload with 86 innings already under his belt.
That said, even with the Los Angeles Dodgers' lineup backing him up he has a 6-5 record through 14 starts. Despite striking batters out at league-best rates, he has a 3.24 ERA on the year -- that's "only" the ninth-best among our pitchers with the 10 shortest odds to win the Cy Young. He's had a few rough outings already, in a year where several other pitchers are playing near-perfect ball.
But better days could be ahead for Glasnow. His 2.58 SIERA mark is the second-best in the entire National League, indicating that he's arguably been a little unlucky in the ERA department.
According to Tankathon's metrics, the Dodgers will face the third-easiest slate of opponent's over the remainder of the summer -- 10 meetings with the Colorado Rockies has that kind of effect on a schedule. If he keeps playing as well as he has been playing, his win-loss ratio should course-correct before too long.
Looking into Glasnow's rougher outings this year, his recent matchup with the New York Yankees sticks out -- he gave up 5 earned runs in that one. But he isn't alone in that department, considering several other Cy Young contenders -- each with slightly elevated ERA's -- have also played against the Yankees' fearsome lineup and come out a little worse for wear against them.
Of the NL Cy Young frontrunners that have played against the Yankees, only teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+2000) has fared well. He didn't surrender a single earned run in that one, while each of Glasnow, Logan Webb (+1300), and Dylan Cease (+2000) have had rough nights against them and given up at least four earned runs.
That distinction could be exerting a legitimate influence over the NL Cy Young award race, separating the candidates into the "Has Played" and "Hasn't Played" against the Yankees categories. The Atlanta Braves are due to play the Yankees near the end of June, which could eventually affect Chris Sale (+1400) and Max Fried (+1400) the same way it's already affected Glasnow, Webb, and Cease. Likewise, the Phillies' stacked rotation won't square off against the Yankees until late July.
That is to say, Glasnow and other pitchers who have already faced such a tough lineup could be a bit of a bet-low situation, while the Phillies' and Braves' staff -- who haven't seen the Yankees yet -- could see their odds suffer a bit after their late July matchup. And if Yamamoto was capable of keeping the scoreboard clean against them, maybe his current +2000 odds are a bit of a value.
Arguably the only thing holding Ranger Suarez back from being the actual frontrunner in this year's Cy Young award race is that we haven't seen him do this before. The breakout 28-year-old has been good in the past, but he's never been this good.
By "this good", we're talking about an insane 10-1 record, an MLB-best 1.81 ERA, and a sterling 2.58 SIERA backing it up. He's struck out 85 batters, has one of this year's seven total complete game shutouts, and went 33 consecutive innings without giving up an earned run.
Suarez has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season, but it's fair to like Wheeler's chances of sustaining his similar production over a full year because we've seen him do it before.
It's also fair to question Philadelphia's pitching environment -- they're good, but are they actually this good? Wheeler and Aaron Nola (+1400) have at least done this before, but the Phillies have three players with top ten odds to claim the NL Cy Young this year. When you look at their strength of schedule, that makes sense -- according to Baseball-Reference's strength of schedule metrics, the Phillies have faced the easiest schedule in the National League by a reasonably fair mark.
The Phillies' opponents this year have recorded 0.4 runs per game less than league average. By the same metric, the Braves have enjoyed the second-easiest schedule in the National League -- their opponents have averaged 0.1 runs less than a league-average team this year. That's a pretty huge gap between easiest and second-easiest, meaning there's a chance the road could get a bit bumpier for the Phillies the rest of the way.
But the first half of the season matters, and Suarez has been one of the best in the game in the first half. The Phillies' pitchers have been elite, and their dominance has played its own part in making their opponents look bad -- your strength of schedule is going to look softer when you're crushing your foes. If he keeps playing as well as he has been, Suarez's current +950 odds could look like a serious bargain when we check in again later this year.
Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
Topik: Baseball, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies